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FTI upgrades long-term forecast despite short-term blip

WORLDWIDE: FTI Consulting predicts wind installation totals to increase by 2.8% on average each year between 2017 and 2026, even though in the short term, installations will be lower than originally forecast.

FTI predicts long-term growth, despite a short-term downturn
FTI predicts long-term growth, despite a short-term downturn

The market analytics and consultancy firm lowered its short-term installation forecast (2017-2021) to 287GW, which is 1.5% down compared with its Q1 predictions.

FTI said the downgrade was due to challenges in China — which faces a slowing installation rate over the rest of the decade, Germany, India, France, Poland and Turkey.

However, between 2022 and 2026, FTI predicts an annual average growth rate of roughly 3.3%, with installations increasing more rapidly at the end of the period.

Over the ten-year period overall, FTI suggests 625GW of new wind capacity will be installed, which is 1.1% higher than its prediction in Q1.

Asia Pacific will contribute 52.1% of the total in the next decade, with Europe (22%), North America (11.7%) and Latin America (7.3%) also contributing.

Fastest growing

In its H2 2017 global market update, FTI identified the 15 fastest-growing markets over the next ten years.

It found Russia was due to expand by 74.1% between 2017 and 2026 with 4GW of new capacity.

Algeria (63% growth), Kenya (54%), Israel (50%) and Iran (46%) were also identified as the biggest growth markets.

Manufacturers

In the first half of 2017, FTI's provisional figures found Vestas was the largest manufacturer by order volume, taking a 23.4% market share, totalling 4.8GW of new orders.

The total did not include orders from the MHI Vestas offshore wind joint venture.

Vestas leads the other of the "big four" OEMS as Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy (19.3%), GE (18.6%) and Goldwind (15.1%) in dominating the global market.

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