12.8GW by 2024 forecast for Germany

Minor reduction in ten-year outlook produced by TSOs

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Offshore wind capacity of 12.8GW by 2024 has been forecast for German waters by the country's four transmissions system operators (TSOs). Their latest ten-year outlook is included in draft scenarios designed to form the basis for Germany's 2014 onshore and offshore transmission network development plans.

A lead scenario of 12.8GW represents a slight reduction in operational capacity compared to last year's forecast, which was 13.1GW in 2023. This was later increased to 14.1GW by federal energy regulator, BNA, which oversees the drafting of network development plans.

The TSOs' latest estimate envisages 10.7GW in the North Sea and 2.1GW in the Baltic Sea. The Baltic Sea capacity forecast assumes that any of Adlergrund Nordkap, Wikinger Nord, Baltic Eagle and Arcadis Ost 1 could be granted construction permits, but does not specify when this is likely.

A longer term draft forecast foresees 22.4GW in operation in 2034, of which 4.5GW would be in the Baltic Sea. This total is 2.9GW less than the 25.3GW foreseen for 2033 in scenarios issued last year.

Public consultation on the draft scenarios began today and will run until 17 May. Just as for draft scenarios presented last year for the yet-to-be-completed 2013 network development plans, the regulator has the right to adjust forecasts based on information received during consultation.

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