Accountants Ernst & Young’s latest quarterly report on the most attractive world markets for clean energy investment reinforces the common industry perception that 2013 will be a difficult year for the global wind sector. But the industry is expected to rally again in 2014 and 2015, when installed capacity is forecast to grow to 48GW and 56GW respectively.
The report ascribes much of 2013’s likely difficulties to the expiration of the US production tax credit at the end of 2012. A possible two- or three-year extension to the PTC would drive E&Y’s predicted increase in capacity in 2015 as manufacturers and developers rush to complete projects, after which another decline is likely.
In China, once again the top country in Ernst & Young’s wind index, recent rapid growth in new wind capacity is expected to decline from 2011’s record 20GW 2011 to between 15 and 17GW annually for the rest of the decade.
This is due to recent attempts by the Chinese government to prevent overcapacity by introducing more stringent permitting rules.
However, a combination of increasing coal prices and falling turbine prices mean wind is likely to remain an attractive energy resource in China, the report says.
Overall the report said that challenging market conditions worldwide meant the value of renewable energy deals in all sectors in the second quarter of 2012 were down 50% on the previous quarter.