From Ralph Bischof, EUROSOLAR (The European Association for Solar Energy), Cologne, Germany
I disagree with the figures for the future wind market in Germany, estimated by Arthur D Little and reported in your article, Thousands of Megawatt (Windpower Monthly, January 1995). In the last years the wind energy capacity in Germany almost doubled per year. At the end of 1994, the installed capacity has totalled some 630 MW, which is more than in Denmark. Although there are some obstacles to further progress in the form of opposing utilities and people who are concerned about the landscape, the commitments of both the states of Schleswig-Holstein and Lower Saxony to have 1000 MW installed by 2000 still hold true.
Furthermore, the government of North Rhine-Westfalia, the largest federal state, now strongly supports fair pay-back rates allowing payment of DEM 0.24-0.35/kWh for wind energy fed into the grid. Also the governments in the states of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and especially Saxony are becoming more and more aware of their wind power potential. The Electricity Feed Law (EFL), which sets premium price payments for renewable sourced energy as well as obliging utilities to buy electricity from renewables generators, will be maintained; it was the same Conservative government which established the EFL that was returned to power in 1994. It would have a hard time explaining to the public why the EFL should now be axed. However, the rates of pay may not be improved and they could even be slightly reduced.
Last, but not least, the federal government will be offering limited subsidies for renewables and the legal situation
for installing wind energy conversion systems will be improved, even though the first attempt at this failed in parliament in 1994.
Thus, at a rough estimate I would expect at least 2000 MW additional wind capacity in Germany by 2000.