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Make cuts forecast on concerns in major markets

WORLDWIDE: Make Consulting has downgraded its ten-year growth forecast by 4% as political changes in China, the US and Canada affect confidence.

China is targeting 210GW of wind power by 2020
China is targeting 210GW of wind power by 2020

The recent US presidential election, and the cancellation of a 600MW tender in Ontario, Canada were contributing factors.

However, the major contribution to the downgrade of Make's forecast was the publication of China's five-year plan for energy (2016-2020).

China's 13th five-year plan will target wind installations "more than 210GW" by 2020. The country already has 140GW installed, with a further 80GW under construction, according to Greenpeace.

The easily achievable target caused Make to cut its outlook as it demonstrates the lack of ambition to continue the growth in China over the next five years. Coal also still forms a major part of the country's plan.

"Make downgrades the ten-year outlook by 4% in its Q4 analysis, primarily due to the weight of the cut to the outlook in China," the market analyst firm said.

"The downgrade is most severe from 2016 to 2020, as 4GW of average annual growth is removed. Despite the Q4 adjustments, higher growth expectations quarter on quarter in 2025, results in a compound annual growth rate of 1% over the ten-year outlook," said Make.

Windpower Intelligence, the research and data division of Windpower Monthly, predicts by the end of 2022, the Asia-Pacific region’s total installed capacity to have reached 340.4GW. 

By the end of 2018, Windpower Intelligence expects China’s total installed capacity to have reached 202.7GW and 262.3GW by 2022. 

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