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FTI increases short-term forecast

WORLDWIDE: Market analyst FTI Consulting has increased its short-term forecast for wind installations to 2020 by 3%, but projections over the medium term have been cut.

FTI predicts an average annual growth of 0.47% between 2016-2025
FTI predicts an average annual growth of 0.47% between 2016-2025

The consultancy believes 306GW of new wind capacity will be added between 2016-2020, upgrading from its forecast from March.

However, in the period 2021-2025, FTI has downgraded its forecast by 4.8% to 315GW. This means over the next decade, FTI predicts approximately 620GW will be added, down 1.1% from its estimate earlier in the year.

The firm blamed the downgrade on new European legislation — such as in Poland – uncertainty over the US' clean power plan, an economic recession in Brazil over the medium term, and the affects of Brexit.

In Latin America, FTI noted how solar took more power purchase agreements than wind in the recent power auctions in Mexico, affecting that market's reduction.

According to the report, Vestas ranked as leading OEM for firm orders, ahead of GE, Siemens and Goldwind respectively during the first half of 2016

For offshore, Siemens (1,915MW) was well ahead of main competitor MHI Vestas (395MW).

Globally, guidance from Windpower Intelligence (WPI), the research and data division of Windpower Monthly, suggests the short-term forecasts (2016-18) are in line with FTI's forecasts. WPI's medium-term forecast (2019-22), however, is less than FTI's.

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